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GB/T 31593.3-2015: Fire safety engineering -- Part 3: Guidance on fire risk assessment
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Fire safety engineering -- Part 3: Guidance on fire risk assessment
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GB/T 31593.3-2015
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Basic data | Standard ID | GB/T 31593.3-2015 (GB/T31593.3-2015) | | Description (Translated English) | Fire safety engineering -- Part 3: Guidance on fire risk assessment | | Sector / Industry | National Standard (Recommended) | | Classification of Chinese Standard | C80 | | Classification of International Standard | 13.220.01 | | Word Count Estimation | 25,271 | | Date of Issue | 2015-06-02 | | Date of Implementation | 2015-08-01 | | Quoted Standard | GB/T 5907.1; GB/T 5907.2; GB/T 5907.3; GB/T 5907.4; GB/T 5907.5; GB/T 31592; GB/T 31593.1; GB/T 31593.2; GB/T 31593.4-2015; GB/T 31593.9 | | Adopted Standard | ISO/TS 16732-2005, MOD | | Regulation (derived from) | National Standard Announcement 2015 No.19 | | Issuing agency(ies) | General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China | | Summary | This Standard specifies the basic concepts and principles of fire risk assessment provides the steps and procedures to be followed for fire risk assessment to provide guidance for determining fire risk quantification and acceptable level. This Standard applies to all types of fire risk assessment fire scenario. | GB/T 31593.3-2015: Fire safety engineering -- Part 3: Guidance on fire risk assessment---This is a DRAFT version for illustration, not a final translation. Full copy of true-PDF in English version (including equations, symbols, images, flow-chart, tables, and figures etc.) will be manually/carefully translated upon your order.
Fire safety engineering Part 3. Guidance on fire risk assessment
ICS 13.220.01
C80
National Standards of People's Republic of China
(ISO/TS 16732.2005, MOD)
Issued on. 2015-06-02
2015-08-01 implementation
Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of People's Republic of China
Standardization Administration of China released
Table of Contents
Introduction Ⅲ
Introduction Ⅳ
1 Scope 1
2 Normative references 1
3 Terms and definitions
Fire risk assessment of the applicability of 4 4
Fire Risk Management 5 5
6 6 fire risk assessment
7 uncertainty, sensitivity, accuracy and bias 13
8 Fire Risk Assessment 14
Appendix A (informative) This section reg number and ISO /T S16732.2005 Number of control clauses 16
Annex B (informative) of this section and the ISO /T S16732.2005 technical differences and their causes 18
References 20
Foreword
GB/T 31593 "Fire Safety Engineering" is divided into nine sections.
--- Part 1. Calculation of the assessment, verification and validation;
--- Part 2. Type the required data and information;
--- Part 3. Fire Risk Assessment Guidelines;
--- Part 4. Setting fire scene and setting selection fire;
--- Part 5. Calculation of fire plume requirements;
--- Part 6. Calculation of the smoke layer requirements;
--- Part 7. Calculation ceiling jet requirements;
--- Part 8. Calculation of the opening airflow requirements;
--- Part 9. Evacuation Evaluation Guide.
This section GB/T Part of 331,593.
This section drafted in accordance with GB/T 1.1-2009 given rules.
This part redrafted law revision using ISO /T S16732.2005 "Fire Safety Engineering Fire Risk Assessment Guide" (English
Version).
This part of ISO /T S16732.2005 compared to more adjustments in the structure. Listed in Appendix A of this part of ISO /T S16732.
Article 2005 of chapter numbering control list.
This part of ISO /T S16732.2005 compared to the existence of technical differences in terms of these differences have been involved through the air in the outside margin
Singlet white vertical position (|) have been marked, in Appendix B gives the corresponding list of technical differences and their causes.
For ease of use and compliance with the requirements of the relevant standards prepared, this section of the ISO /T S16732.2005 made the following editorial
modify.
--- Deleted international standards foreword, preface redrafted;
--- Modify the introduction of international standards, as a part of this introduction;
--- International standard "this International Standard" be replaced by "this section";
--- The International Standard some punctuation modified to comply with the Chinese habit of punctuation;
--- Increase the informative Appendix A and Appendix B, is given in this section reg number and the number of international standard clauses and control technology
Differences and reasons.
This section presents the People's Republic of China Ministry of Public Security.
This part of the National Standardization Technical Committee on Fire Building Fire Safety Engineering at the Technical Committee (SAC/TC113/SC13)
Centralized.
This section is drafted. Tianjin Fire Research Institute of Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Public Security of Sichuan Fire Research Institute, University of Science and Technology of China, China Construction Division
Graduate School.
The main drafters of this section. Kan strong, easing Yao, Zhang Chang, Han Weiping, Bishao Ying, Chi will be strong, Zhang Yuxian, Lu Shou Hong, Wu Chung day, Charles Zhang,
Deng Songhua, Zheng Wei.
Introduction
Fire risk assessment is important to reduce casualties and property losses caused by the fire. By conducting a fire risk assessment,
A more objective and accurate understanding of the risk of fire, so as to prevent fire, fire control and extinguish the fire and provide the basis for support.
Object fire risk assessment can be both inside the building and its facilities can also be a new building and its interior facilities design.
Fire risk assessment can be used to determine new or existing buildings fire safety measures, it can also be used to establish an equivalent level of safety and standardization to comment
Assess the balance between investment cost of fire safety and fire risk. In addition, the fire risk assessment for the selection also applies to deterministic analysis
Fire scene to provide guidance and support.
Fire Safety Engineering
Part 3. Fire Risk Assessment Guidelines
1 Scope
This section GB/T 31593 introduces the basic concepts and principles of fire risk assessment, fire risk assessment defines the steps to be followed
Sudden and procedures for the determination and quantification acceptable level of fire risk to provide guidance.
This section applies to all types of fire risk assessment fire scenario.
2 Normative references
The following documents for the application of this document is essential. For dated references, only the dated version suitable for use herein
Member. For undated references, the latest edition (including any amendments) applies to this document.
GB/T 5907 (all parts) Fire Vocabulary
GB/T 31592 Fire Safety Engineering General
GB/T 31593.1 Fire safety engineering - Part 1. assessment of the calculation method, verification and validation (GB/T 31593.1-2015,
ISO 16730.2008, MOD)
GB/T 31593.2 Fire safety engineering - Part 2. Type the required data and information
GB/T 31593.4-2015 Fire safety engineering - Part 4. Setting fire scene and setting selection fire (ISO /T S16733.
2006, MOD)
GB/T 31593.9 Fire safety engineering - Part 9. Evacuation Evaluation Guide (GB/T 31593.9-2015, ISO /T R16738.
2009, MOD)
3 Terms and Definitions
GB/T 5907 and GB/T 31592 and defined by the following terms and definitions apply to this document.
3.1
Acceptable criterion acceptance criteria
In the risk assessment phase of the risk assessment process used to measure a particular fire risk is acceptable threshold.
Note 1. Refer to acceptable fire risk (3.6).
Note 2. "acceptable criterion" can also be a result of risk assessment of non-quantitative characteristic parameters.
3.2
Behavior scene behaviour and scenario
A description of the fire personnel behavior and order.
3.3
Set fire scenario design fire scenario
Specific fire scenario Fire Safety Engineering deterministic analysis used.
Note. Because of possible fire scenarios is very large, so it is necessary to select the most important scenes (setting fire scene) for analysis. Set fire scene selection
And fire safety design objectives are compatible, and can explain the possibility and consequences of a potential fire scene.
3.4
Failure failure
On the whole and some did not show the expected effect. Passive fire protection systems, "failure" means the loss of fire separation capacity, structural collapse
Or collapse, loss of carrying capacity; for active fire protection systems, "failure" means a fire protection system is not an action or an unacceptable result or not in accordance with
Design requirements for action.
3.5
Fire Risk fire risk
Combined probability of fire and its consequences.
Note 1. The risk of fire or an event scenario is a combination of the probability of the event or scenario and its consequences, usually the product of probability and consequences.
Note 2. The design of a fire risk refers to the probability of any event or combination of scenarios with the design of its consequences, usually all events or scenes Wind
And insurance.
3.6
Acceptable fire risk acceptable fire risk
In the risk assessment stage fire risk assessment to meet predetermined acceptable criterion (3.1) risk.
3.7
Fire risk assessment fire risk assessment
Acceptable fire risk procedure to evaluate fire risk estimated by regulations.
3.8
Fire risk curve fire risk curve
A method for express the risk of fire, usually in logarithmic form, use the drawing represents cumulative probability and results.
3.9
Fire risk assessment fireriskevaluation
The estimated risk of fire risk analysis based on comparison with an acceptable risk based on a predetermined acceptance criteria.
3.10
Fire risk matrix fire risk matrix
In matrix form, set the fire scene by scene probability arrangement (usually defined rows or columns) arrangement and design load (that is, the size of the fire
And strength) (usually defined rows or columns) to describe; matrix elements for each fire scenario group acceptable results.
NOTE. This method assumes that the design of the building itself suffered no effect on fire, and fire scenario depending on the setting of the external load is applied.
3.11
Fire scene fire scenario
Fire on a qualitative description of the entire development process, which is described to determine other possible fire reflect the views of the fire characteristics and distinct
Key events.
NOTE. To define the fire scene is usually ignited, fire growth phase, the fully developed stage and decline stage, and the effects of fire development of various systems and ring
Environmental conditions. Regardless of whether deterministic analysis or risk assessment is expected to determine the potential fire scene is an important step.
3.12
A typical fire scenarios representative fire scenario
Selected from a group of fire scenarios typical fire scenario, we assume that the results provide a reasonable result for the average fire scenario group
estimate.
3.13
Fire scenario group fire scenario cluster
A subset of the fire scene, usually defined as a part of all possible fire scenario completely separate area, so that the estimated probability of the presence of a scene
King performed the horizontal group.
Note. See fire scenario (3.11), the typical fire scenarios (3.12).
3.14
Limit state limit state
Whole structure no longer meets the performance requirements of the state of design.
NOTE. In the fire risk assessment, "limit state" is defined as the threshold limit value or rank on the result, usually it is the order of the state fire scenario described
Said. This means that the structure can be returned to the state does not exceed the limit state.
3.15
Monte Carlo method method of Monte Carlo
Computer random simulation method, when a closed-form analysis is not possible, in order to generate a computing task manageable, from the infinite fire
Disaster scenes or other system conditions in the process of extracting the sample.
Note 1. The "Monte Carlo" is not a probability model, but based on numerical calculations using probabilistic model of sampling and analysis process. Monte Carlo method
It does not exclude the need to define and prove the relevant probability distribution function, and does not provide any simple standard distributions (such as uniform, normal distribution) of
Default principle.
Note 2. For more details about the differences between the sample and the Monte Carlo method can be found to eliminate references [3] and [4].
3.16
Reliability reliability
Given the conditions and the probability of a given time unit to achieve its necessary functions in.
NOTE. reliability performance characteristics apply to any building or product design, these properties can influence fire development process, and thus the characteristic parameters of the fire scene
And the associated risk of influence on the result. Performance characteristics can be part of the success or failure of the case better described through a series of parts, which
Requirements for this term gives a more broad and flexible definition.
3.17
Individual Risk individual risk
Only the individual experiences the consequences of risk, based on fire risk of individual life model estimate.
Note. If the fire risk estimate is the probability of occurrence of adverse outcomes, such as death, the individual risk is that of an individual, the probability of occurrence of adverse outcomes
An estimate, typically expressed as events per unit time. Risk estimates can be expressed as conditionally exposed to risk, such as in hazardous locations. A
Body risks and number of people affected or not. And social risks (3.18), respectively.
3.18
Social risks societal risk
Estimate of the fire risk the consequences of each of the affected individuals and groups experienced in.
Note 1. Integrated all affected parties also affect the overall results of the probability of the event. It is equal to all of the affected individuals and individual risks, but can
It is expressed as the number of the affected or exposed ratio. In this case, the form is to assess the individual risk posed by direct comparison.
Note 2. In the risk society, some individuals have experienced the results can be offset by the results experienced by other individuals. For example, a company's business interruption losses may
Competitors completely by another fire has not been affected by the increase in commercial revenue offset.
3.19
Risk Acceptance risk acceptance
Acceptable level of risk assessment decision, according to the decision may be to meet the acceptable criterion may also be an acceptable criterion be repaired
And instead of reaching tangible results.
3.20
Risk Communication risk communication
Between policy makers and other owners to exchange or share information about risks.
Note. It may be affected, or perceived to be affected individual, group or organization that they have been affected by the risk.
3.21
Risk management risk management
To achieve the desired risk criterion required processes, procedures and supporting cultural background.
NOTE. Risk management is risk assessment, risk treatment, risk acceptance and risk communication portfolio.
3.22
Risk treatment risk treatment
Selection and implementation process of risk adjustment methods. Usually it refers to corrective design changes other than (such as security management device).
Note. The risk-adjusted approach itself belongs to risk treatment.
3.23
Uncertainty uncertainty
Data, arguments, parameters, or mathematical relationship between systematic and random errors of quantification; or factors not included in the quantification.
Fire risk assessment of the applicability 4
4.1 suitable for fire risk assessment
4.1.1 given the low probability of occurrence but a scene of high hazard. E.g.
a) a large number of vulnerable people gather at these groups of vulnerable reflected in sleep, disability, age, defective or is not familiar with the environment;
b) a high growth rate of fire;
c) a short high fire load, especially in hostile area, such as placing a large amount of combustible substance evacuation channel.
4.1.2 fire metric space size (used for qualitative assessment of fire hazard) is not sufficient to explain the severity of the fire. E.g.
a) storing high value items small space places;
b) the vulnerability of property, such as clean room facilities;
c) Dimensions or direct loss is not a direct response to the importance of the items, such as control of nuclear power plant facilities cable safety devices;
Not directly endanger property damage d) fire, but it is likely to cause environmental damage, business interruption or damage the image and credibility
Such as loss;
e) use change, alteration or renovation of property.
And a scene to include or exclude the possibility of relative uncertainty related to the assumptions, to identify or compensate for unconscious or inappropriate bias. Even though
Fire risk estimation stage fire risk assessment does not directly use explicit scenes, but in order to fully demonstrate the validity of assumptions, it should be the
Inspection procedures, in order to obtain a clear feature of the scene.
6.2.7 behavior Scene
For analytical purposes, it requires not only a detailed description of the fire scene, also described in detail the behavior of the scene. Behavior scenario, should be described in detail
The number of personnel and fire-related characteristics, behavior, including exports. See detailed content GB/T 31593.9 and GB/T 31593.4-
The 2015 provisions 6.3.6.
6.2.8 Uncertainty analysis to select the setting for the scene of the fire risk assessment Fire
Uncertainty analysis when selecting setting fire scenario, fire risk assessment process can be simplified. For example, the use of engineering judgment, existing data
And the estimated magnitude to estimate the probability and consequences of fire. In this method, all the potential scenarios to map the scene group often highly simplified and
Not clearly demonstrated. Named groups are generally based on a scene typical fire scenario selection OK. See the detailed content
GB/T 31593.4-2015 the relevant provisions.
6.3 Characterization Probability
6.3.1 Overview
In FIG fire risk estimation procedure shown in Figure 2, the estimated probability of a fire is a crucial step. 6.3.2 describes the alternative methods of probability estimation,
6.3.3 and 6.3.4 details the ignition probability estimation and system state probabilities are estimated. See detailed content GB/T 31593.4-
The 2015 provisions 6.3.8.
6.3.2 probability estimation method
6.3.2.1 Overview
Here refers to the probability of the initial state probability and the probability of an event, including the reliability of the measurement. Some of the risk analysis method requires additional probability, such as
State transition model. More detailed application guidance needed to estimate the probability see reference [1].
Probability value can be obtained by one of the following three ways.
1) by direct estimation data;
2) that is derived by the model, the model this probability linked to other probability, such as the probability of a fire igniting the same piece of equipment failure
Probability, and the persons fault probability and the probability of near flammable materials linked;
3) engineering judgment.
When the probability estimation, should pay attention to some of the common errors or bias, including.
--- People tend to put a low probability estimate is too low and the high probability estimate is too high, therefore, should pay attention to this trend and adopt together
Conservative approach appropriate to seek compensation.
--- Should not be assumed that all of the circumstances and events are independent in probability. Note that the common cause event, interrelated high-risk people
Few data and methods.
6.4.4 estimate the consequences of using engineering judgment
By using the Delphi method or other reducing bias and improve the quality of the estimation procedure, the system can be made and coordinated engineering judgment
(See reference [4], [5]).
Engineering judgment can be given a specific value, but also gives a range of values. The latter can reduce the presence of those differences between estimated and may
Or other quantitative risk matrix for fire risk assessment procedures. Based on engineering judgment about the estimates, see reference [6].
When little or no data exist with the aid of the estimated consequences engineering judgment, it may be used at this time risk matrix. In the matrix
, All of the consequences are attributed to the good distribution of the values \u200b\u200bof a small part. Preferably the successive values \u200b\u200binto one or two orders of magnitude, and having
Value specifies the minimum, medium, maximum value special meaning, such as the average loss of money (as the lowest possible value) per reports of fires, the definition of the giant
Threshold (as a possible intermediate value), or 0.1% of GDP (as the highest possible value) large fire loss.
6.5 Calculation scene of fire risk and portfolio risk of fire
6.5.1 Overview
Formula (1) is a general equation for all design-related scenes probability and consequences.
R = f (P, C) (1)
Where.
R --- risk scenarios;
Probability P --- scene;
Consequences C --- scene.
Here are two of the more common special formula.
(2) applies to all scenarios.
R = (P × C) (2)
Immediately after the design change through risk estimation procedure into new risk curve. The relative phase of the original graph, alternative risk curve
Proximity (ie zero probability, the consequences of the zero position) is designed for a relative risk selection. The new risk curve to the image origin (such as zero probability, after zero
If the position) can be used to measure the relative proximity of the relative risks of alternative designs.
7 uncertainty, sensitivity, accuracy and bias
7.1 Overview
Uncertainty is the difference between the calculated value and the real risk of the risk. Accuracy means the statistical measure of deviation, these
Standard deviation of the difference between calculated risk measurement error probability distribution based. Bias refers to the degree of asymmetry deviation of the distribution.
Sensitivity analysis can not quantify the uncertainty, but it is beginning to realize quantifiable. The sensitivity analysis calculated by measuring the amount of change in risk
Analysis, but with due regard for each parameter, and systematically identify those risk estimates may change and make decisions based on these estimates
Parameters.
8 Fire Risk Assessment
8.1 Overview
Risk assessment is to determine the priority of the risk management process. It is by the level of risk with pre-determined criteria, the target level of risk or
Compared to other criteria determine risk management priorities. Risk assessment objective was to determine whether the risk is acceptable. See the detailed content
GB/T 31593.4-2015 provisions in 6.3.10,6.3.11.
8.2 Individual and social risk
Measure individual risk may refer to the probability of a particular person in a particular suffer accidents caused by a particular type of injury. Correspondingly social
Such risk measure may hurt for a specific number of people suffering from such accidents caused by the annual probability. Indi...
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