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GB/T 41165-2021: Accuracy evaluation methods of marine forecast results
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GB/T 41165-2021: Accuracy evaluation methods of marine forecast results

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Accuracy evaluation methods of marine forecast results ICS 07:060 CCSA45 National Standards of People's Republic of China Method for testing and evaluating the accuracy of marine forecast results Published on 2021-12-31 2022-07-01 Implementation State Administration for Market Regulation Released by the National Standardization Administration directory Preface III 1 Scope 1 2 Normative references 1 3 Terms and Definitions 1 4 General Provisions 2 4:1 Basic Principles 2 4:2 Data application 2 4:3 Forecast period 2 4:4 Inspection and evaluation elements 2 4:5 Inspection and Evaluation Time Limit 3 4:6 Relevant regulations on inspection and evaluation results 3 5 Inspection and evaluation method of sea surface wind 3 5:1 Wind speed inspection and evaluation 3 5:2 Wind direction inspection and evaluation 5 6 Wave inspection and evaluation method 6 6:1 Wave height inspection and evaluation 6 6:2 Evaluation of wave direction inspection 7 7 Inspection and evaluation method of surface seawater temperature 8 7:1 Surface seawater temperature conversion 8 7:2 Absolute error of surface seawater temperature 8 7:3 Surface seawater temperature assessment 8 7:4 Surface seawater temperature inspection 8 8 Storm surge warning verification and evaluation method9 8:1 Inspection and evaluation of storm surge warning level 9 8:2 Tidal level assessment 10 8:3 Tidal assessment 11 9 Wave Warning Verification and Evaluation Method 12 9:1 Inspection and evaluation of wave warning level 12 9:2 Alarm wave height assessment 13 10 Sea ice warning assessment method13 10:1 Sea ice warning level conversion 13 10:2 Absolute error of sea ice warning level 14 10:3 Assessment of sea ice alert levels 14 Appendix A (Informative) Conversion Table 15 A:1 Conversion table of forecast wind level, estimated wind level and estimated wind speed value 15 A:2 Conversion table of observed wind speed value and observed wind series 16 A:3 Conversion table of forecast wind direction/wave direction (azimuth) and estimated wind direction/wave direction (degree) 20 Reference 21

foreword

This document is in accordance with the provisions of GB/T 1:1-2020 "Guidelines for Standardization Work Part 1: Structure and Drafting Rules of Standardization Documents" drafted: Please note that some content of this document may be patented: The issuing agency of this document assumes no responsibility for identifying patents: This document is proposed by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China: This document is under the jurisdiction of the National Marine Standardization Technical Committee (SAC/TC283): This document was drafted by: East China Sea Forecast Center of the State Oceanic Administration, National Marine Environment Forecast Center, National Oceanographic Information Center, State Oceanic The North Sea Forecast Center of the Bureau, the South China Sea Forecast Center of the State Oceanic Administration, the National Oceanographic Standard Measurement Center, and the Zhejiang Provincial Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Center: The main drafters of this document: Yao Shengkang, Wei Quanmiao, Xu Tingting, Deng Xiaodong, Xu Lili, Zheng Xiaoqin, Guanqin Music, Zhang Jie, Chen Bianrui, Li Benxia, Wang Hui, Guo Kecai, Yuan Lingling, Bai Yiping, Wang Qin: Method for testing and evaluating the accuracy of marine forecast results

1 Scope

This document specifies the elements, timeliness, technical methods and application of the required observational data for the verification and evaluation of the accuracy of marine forecast results: This document is applicable to the marine prediction of five elements of sea surface wind, waves, storm surge, surface sea temperature and sea ice in China's coastal and offshore waters: The test and evaluation of the accuracy of the report and alarm results are not applicable to the test and evaluation of the accuracy of the numerical prediction results:

2 Normative references

The contents of the following documents constitute essential provisions of this document through normative references in the text: Among them, dated citations documents, only the version corresponding to that date applies to this document; for undated references, the latest edition (including all amendments) applies to this document: GB/T 14914:2 Ocean Observation Specification Part 2: Coastal Observation GB/T 15920 Oceanographic Terminology Physical Oceanography GB/T 17839 Code for Verification of Alert Tide Levels GB/T 19721 (all parts) Marine forecast and warning release

3 Terms and Definitions

GB/T 14914:2, GB/T 15920, GB/T 17839, GB/T 19721 (all parts) and the following terms and definitions are applicable used in this document: 3:1 forecast validity forecast validity The validity period of the forecast: 3:2 forecast period forecastperiod The text that defines a specific period of time and its corresponding time range in forecasting work: Note: The forecast period includes daytime, nighttime, morning, morning, noon, afternoon, evening, first half of the night, midnight, and second half of the night: The specific time range is shown in Table 1: Table 1 Forecast period and its corresponding time range Forecast period Beijing time Daytime 08:00~20:00 Night 20:00~08:00 Morning 05:00~08:00 08:00~11:00 am 11:00~14:00 noon 14:00~17:00 PM ...